2026 FINAL OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS

Published on 3/12/26 

Written by: Braylon Mitchell 

My predictions for the winners of the 98th Annual Academy Awards (Oscars). Winners will be announced live on March 15th. 

It's finally time, Oscar night is upon us. The super bowl of the movie-world, and my personal second Christmas Day. This year's race has been pretty great, especially since there have been two same-studio universally beloved dual awards juggernauts that have ruled the awards season and will likely each end the season with strong landings- "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners". 

BEST PICTURE 

Will win: One Battle After Another 

Could win: Sinners 

We're in an interesting situation at the moment. "One Battle After Another" has had a massive sweep this season- sweeping both critics awards and industry/guild awards. Outside of loosing SAG Ensemble, "One Battle After Another" has had just about a strong a sweep as recent sweepers such as "Oppenheimer" and "Everything Everywhere All At Once". It feels just as strong as those films that went on to win Best Picture- yet there is a question left unanswered, what about "Sinners"? It beat "One Battle After Another" for SAG Ensemble right as Oscar voting began, "Sinners" has a huge cultural impact/people that don't even follow awards are rooting for it, and lastly it received a whopping SIXTEEN Oscar nominations which broke the all time record. I keep going back to one thought- decades from now, both awards cinephiles and regular people will look back on the record breaking "Sinners" and wonder "why didn't it take Best Picture too?". 

Statistically, "One Battle After Another" is clearly the frontrunner- but there is so much passion for "Sinners" and it very much has the type of potential Oscar package to realistically win Best Picture (Original Screenplay, a tech award or two, and up to possibly two acting awards). Then again, it can't be discounted how much passion "One Battle After Another" also has- this isn't some "too prestigous/slow" awards frontrunner or a film that some people vocally hate on 24/7. It is very loved and celebrated by audiences, critics, and the industry. It has THE perfect potenial Oscar package to support a Best Picture win too (Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, possibly two or three tech awards, and at least one acting award). Both "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" are incredibly beloved, and fit the mold for a Best Picture win. 

The stats support "One Battle After Another" and it's a historic sweeper, but there's just enough buzz around an upset by "Sinners" to make this feel like a true two horse race. 

BEST DIRECTOR 

Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson- One Battle After Another 

Could win: Ryan Coogler- Sinners 

Sure, Ryan Coogler is in second place and in a different awards season without "One Battle After Another" would likely be winning this award- but this year is PTA's year. 

He's swept the entire season and is currently on has fourteen nomination without a win. Many would argue that he is currently the most overdue director/writer alive, and his Best Director win has felt secured for months now. 

BEST ACTRESS 

Will win: Jessie Buckley- Hamnet 

Could win: None 

Jessie Buckley has pulled off a classic, unbeatable (ignoring Russell Crowe in 2001/2002) sweep. She's won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG- and won them easily. It's a performance that was bound to win the Oscar the night "Hamnet" first premiered at the Telluride Film Festival back in September. She's already won, basically. 

BEST ACTOR 

Will win: Micheal B. Jordan- Sinners 

Could win: Timothee Chalamet- Marty Supreme 

The Best Actor field this year is fun. Just under a month ago, Timothee Chalamet was the clear frontrunner to continue sweeping the season after his Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins- then he lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo for "I Swear" which isn't even competing in this year's awards season and more subsequently then lost the SAG a week later to Micheal B. Jordan for "Sinners".  Whichever way the win goes to, it'll be a stat breaker. 

No one has won the Best Actor Oscar with just the Golden Globe and Critics Choice since Sean Penn for "Mystic River" in 2004. 

No one has ever won the Best Actor Oscar with a sole SAG win, and only two actors have ever won the Oscar with only SAG (Morgan Freeman for "Million Dollar Baby" in 2005 and Jamie Lee Curtis for "Everything Everywhere All At Once" in 2023) 

There is a case for Chalamet to still pull off the win and I've even heard some throw out the idea of Wagner Moura winning for "The Secret Agent" based off his international support & sole Golden Globe win- but to me, looking at this crazy race I feel best about predicting Micheal B. Jordan. The SAG award is a huge win to have, and stats be damned I've seen momentum and passion prevail too many times over the past decade to ever fully dissmiss it- and that's exactly what Jordan has in his favor, momentum and passion. Not to mention, he's apart of the stronger Best Picture contender which never hurts. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

Will win: Amy Madigan- Weapons 

Could win: Wunmi Mosaku- Sinners 

The Best Actor race isn't the only acting category this year that's crazy hard to predict. In this race, we have Amy Madigan for "Weapons" who has won the Critics Choice and SAG award, Wunmi Mosaku for "Sinners" who won the BAFTA, and Teyana Taylor for "One Battle After Another" who won the Golden Globe. All three have pros and cons when it comes to winning the Oscar. 

Pros for Amy Madigan: She is an acting veteran (nominated once before in the 80s for "Twice in a Lifetime" too) who played a newly iconic villainous character and is the only actresses nominated to win two of the four major precursors. Cons for Amy Madigan: She's the only one nominated not in a Best Picture nominee, wasn't nominated at BAFTA, and is in a full on horror movie that some old guard voters may not take to. 

Pros for Wunmi Mosaku: It is quite a common occurrence in awards season that someone can solely win the BAFTA and in a close race win the Oscar off that alone and many think of her as the heart of "Sinners". Cons for Wunmi Mosaku: Some might attribute a major reason for her BAFTA win being that in the close race she prevailed due to being British and she's very much an ensemble player in "Sinners" more so being than the only major supporting performance out of her film. 

Pros for Teyana Taylor: She's a key actress in the Best Picture frontrunner and has had a very visible/successful awards campaign. Cons for Teyana Taylor: She desperately needed to win either the BAFTA or SAG (if she had won just won of those I would've easily predicted her here) and some voters might think that her character is too divisive or short lived in the film. 

This race is so difficult to predict that when I first started writing this final Oscar predictions article I decided to predict Wunmu Mosaku, wrote a paragraph about why, then moved on. Days later, I ultimately decided to switch my prediction at the last minute to Amy Madigan. 

I kept going back to one feeling lingering in my gut- "which of these three performances do people have the most passion for?" The answer to that question is Amy Madigan, so I've made up my mind to predict her against my original judgements. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Will win: Sean Penn- One Battle After Another 

Could win: Delroy Lindo- Sinners 

Prior to the BAFTAs, Stellan Skarsgard for "Sentimental Value" was the frontrunner for this award having won the Golden Globe- then Sean Penn won the BAFTA, a week later the SAG, and having won the two most important precursors pretty safely assumed the frontrunner status. Early on in awards season when "One Battle After Another" first premiered he was deemed the frontrunner, lost the winning buzz for a couple months, then at the last minute regained it entirely. He gives an incredibly showy, newly iconic villainous performance. This will his third Oscar win, entering a small club of actors that have won more than twice. That's it, it's over. Oscar win locked. Right? 

Probably yeah, but I'm not alone in feeling his win isn't 100% secured- and if a surprise is to happen, I think it would be Delroy Lindo for "Sinners". Lindo is a very beloved veteran actor on his overdue first nomination and has campaigned like hell- and he hasn't been nominated at a single precursor, he was the shocker nominee of the nomination morning announcement that made everyone gasp. Maybe voters will feel compelled to vote for him for the win, resulting in another Marica Gay Harden for "Pollock" situation where in 2001 she became the only actor ever since all four precurors were established at the same time to win the Oscar without being nominated for any of them. That Marica Gay Harden-esque win is basically mythos and a meme in the online awards community, but the prospect of a Delroy Lindo win does feel the like the closet we've gotten to that shocker if it ever were to happen again. I don't think it will, but I wanted to acknowledge the possibility since several people have entertained the idea or gone as far as to actually predict Lindo to pull off the win. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

Will win: Sinners 

Could win: None 

Since Paul Thomas Anderson has Best Director down pat, most every corner of awards season has seemed to agree that if Ryan Coogler isn't winning that award- he needs to win this one. It makes a ton of sense that Coogler wins as an Oscar for "Sinners" and Best Original Screenplay is the academy's chance to give one to him for this film, and they'll definitely do that. It's a very original concept, genre-blending screenplay too and that's the exact type of screenplay the academy has been rewarding often throughout this decade so far. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

Will win: One Battle After Another 

Could win: None 

This is the only screenplay nominated in this category that is competitive for the win, and on top of that PTA's overdue narrative for winning Best Director applies even more so here- as most of his past nominations were in the screenplay categories. 

One of the most sure-to-happen Oscar wins of the night. If "One Battle After Another" SOMEHOW doesn't win any other Oscar, it'll still have this one. 

BEST CASTING 

Will win: Sinners 

Could win: One Battle After Another 

This is the first time since I began seriously following awards season as a hobby (going back to 2019) that a brand new Oscars category has been introduced, and also the first time in my own lifetime since a new category was introduced- prior to Best Casting, the most recent category being Best Animated Feature being established in 2001. 

This category has five great nominees, "One Battle After Another" & "Marty Supreme" in particular had a lot of buzz surrounding the casting of their films, and we have no awards precedent to base predicting winners of off yet- despite all that, "Sinners" kind of feels like a shoe in to win this Oscar. The entire ensemble is brilliantly cast from the major roles to the smallest roles and Francine Maisler is a very famous casting director with an impressive filmography that voters will want to recognize. 

Isn't it awesome that "Sinners" will probably be the very first film to win this category? It's setting a great precedent. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

Will win: One Battle After Another 

Could win: Train Dreams 

This category is so stacked this year, especially with "One Battle After Another", "Sinners", and "Train Dreams" all at one point in the season either being the frontrunner to win or considered as "winner potential". 

I really thought that the race for this award would be more competive than it ended up being as "One Battle After Another" won the ASC (American Society of Cinematographers), BSC (British Society of Cinematographers), and BAFTA. Aside from the Critics Choice award going to "Train Dreams" and "Sinners" being the leader of wins early on with critics circles- Micheal Bauman swept the industry precursors for "One Battle After Another". 

Mainly due to the strong competition this year that realistically could've done much better, I'm surprised that "One Battle After Another" is now so far ahead as the frontrunner for Best Cinematography- but then again, it does make sense as the film was shot on Vistavision, has a distinct visual style, and all in the cinematography is fantastic work. I feel like a lot of people voting for it in this category are thinking about the way the car chase was shot, which that sequence alone makes the film deserving of the Oscar. 

BEST EDITING 

Will win: One Battle After Another 

Could win: F1 

After the nominations were announced and "F1" landed into the Best Picture lineup, I switched to predicting "F1" to win this award- it's the showiest, fastest cut film here which good editing or not the Oscars love that and since "F1" is winning Best Sound the pretty common "Editing and Sound" win combo is on the table. 

Then, my longtime prediction of "One Battle After Another" was reaffirmed after it won the BAFTA and ACE (American Editor's Awards). "One Battle After Another" has now pretty much swept, and is very likely to win this Oscar. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

Will win: Frankenstein 

Could win: None 

Very easily the winner, no other contenders here have a shot at winning- the production design in "Frankenstein" is the exact type of production design that the branch loves to award and has awarded many many times. Showy, elaborate, detailed period set pieces & direction. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

Will win: Frankenstein 

Could win: Sinners 

"Frankenstein" has swept Best Costume Design all season with its very showy period piece costumes, it's basically a lock for this Oscar. 

Still, if "Sinners" were to pick up an additional shocker below the line award- I think it'd be this, espeically since Ruth E. Carter is one of the costume branch's favorites. 

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING 

Will win: Frankenstein 

Could win: None 

Again, the third Oscar in a row that's pretty much locked up for "Frankenstein". 

Very memorable, transformative monster/creature makeup as well as period hairstyling for every other character in the film. The stuff that this branch goes crazy for. 

BEST SOUND 

Will win: F1 

Could win: Sinners 

Until sometime in January, for the longest time I held onto to predicting "Sinners" to win this Oscar since for as great as the sound design in "F1" is- I felt like it was way too predictable and "been there, done that" to win Best Sound. Hell, just six or so years ago "Ford vs. Ferrari" won a sound Oscar. 

Well, I was wrong about that. "F1" basically swept all season and will be the Best Picture nominated film's sole Oscar win- pretty much replicating the same treatment that "Top Gun: Maverick" received a few years ago, except I was much more of a fan of that film's Best Sound Oscar win. 

I still hold some hope that "Sinners" could be a shocker upset (the sound work in that film is incredible, unique design and mixing in a possible Best Picture winner) but when "F1" is read as the winner on Oscar night I won't be surprised at all. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

Will win: Avatar Fire and Ash 

Could win: None 

Duh. 

That's all that needs to be said. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

Will win: Sinners 

Could win: None 

Right alongside "Avatar: Fire and Ash" for VFX this is the easiest win to predict of the night. Earlier on in the awards season after "One Battle After Another" came out I thought that Johnny Greenwood might've had a good shot at winning this Oscar, but as the season went on it became clear that no one would be able to stop Ludwig Goransson from winning his THIRD Oscar in the span of ten years for "Sinners". 

His work for "Sinners" is simply too undeniable. It's a phenomenal score that fits perfectly with the essence of its film as a completely original, genre bending, unique compostion of film music. Personally, I'd call it one of the best film scores I've ever heard and I'm so glad that it has swept the awards season. It'll make for an Oscar win that will age extremely well. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

Will win: "Golden"- KPop Demon Hunters 

Could win: "I Lied To You"- Sinners 

"I Lied To You" from "Sinners" isn't completely out of the race since the film itself is so strong and that song is an unforgettable part of the film, but "Golden" is one of the most popular songs of the year-  a song that everyone and their grandma has heard hundreds of times, a song that has swept the awards season as well as getting a Best Song of the Year nomination at the Grammys, and a song that'll very likely win an Oscar. 

"Golden" is this generations "Let It Go" - and for awards context, "Frozen" also easily won Best Original Song and Best Animated Feature. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

Will win: KPop Demon Hunters 

Could win: None 

"KPop Demon Hunters" was a HUGE cultural phenomenon both in America and the world all over, it's word of mouth buzz and rapidly expanding fanbase catapulted this film into being quite possibly the biggest film of 2025 when it comes to impact within general pop culture. Alongside it being a massive hit, the film was universally beloved by critics and swept the awards season- the only major award it lost being the BAFTA to "Zootopia 2" where it was ineligible to be nominated due to the lack of a limited theatrical release in the UK. Still, even the BAFTAs ceremony gave HUNTR/X their own showcase with a performance of "Golden" - one of the most popular, most streamed songs worldwide and the clear frontrunner to win Best Original Song. This film is locked to win Best Animated Feature, it's simply too big to fail. 

I'd like to acknowledge how cool and surprising it is on paper that a film with the words "KPop" and "Demon" in its title is going to easily win two academy awards. Nice to know that people should never judge a book, or more fittingly a movie, by its title. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

Will win: The Perfect Neighbor 

Could win: Mr. Nobody Againist Putin 

Since its premiere at last year's Sundance Film Festival, "The Perfect Neighbor" basically assumed the status of "pre-determined frontrunner" that's kept hold all awards season- it hasn't been the most secure hold, it didn't sweep critics awards and it's lost a few major precursors (PGA, BAFTA, Cinema Eye, Gotham), but for over a year now it hasn't faltered from that placement as frontrunner. It's an urgent, emotionally striking, and incredibly well crafted documentary comprised mostly of body cam and security footage- a doc that pretty much everyone who watches it rates highly. 

I think that this film will win the Oscar and everyone would've been right for defaulting to predicting it for well over a year now- but I can't deny that there isn't a doc nominated in this lineup that is in clear second place, "Mr. Nobody Against Putin". The documentary branch at the academy is no stranger to sticking it to Putin, with a handful of nominees of the 2020s (features and shorts) touching on the subject matter of the Russia-Ukraine war and Putin- two recent examples winning the Academy Award as well, 2022's "Navalny" and 2023's "20 Days in Mariupol". As well as having won the BAFTA (which in recent years winners of the BAFTA have correlated with the Oscar winner quite well) "Mr. Nobody Against Putin" is in a strong second place position to pull off a possible surprise win over "The Perfect Neighbor". 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

Will win: The Secret Agent 

Could win: Sentimental Value 

Maybe more so than any other category at the 98th Oscars, Best International Feature is a genuine two horse race. It's between "Sentimental Value" and "The Secret Agent" with both nominated for Best Picture as well as other categories- this being only the second year in Oscar history that two films in this category are also in the Best Picture lineup, which naturally makes things a bit tricker to predict. Both films are very acclaimed, have precursor wins to support them, and have been seen by most if not all (we can hope) members of the academy this year. 

Anyone can tell that "Sentimental Value" is in the stronger position as it's one of the most nominated films of the year and the academy has a long history of favoring European films in this category. It's very likely to win this award and be the sole consolation prize for "Sentimental Value" since it doesn't have a strong shot at winning any of it's other nominations- but the prospect of "The Secret Agent" winning this category has itched at me for months now. Plain and simply,"The Secret Agent" has had so much passion and excitement surrounding it throughout all of awards season- wherever it's been nominated or won, you can tell that it's due to the organically grown love that people have for this film. It started off it's run winning Best Director and Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival, it was the leader of wins within critics circles, it won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for Best International Feature, and even at the BAFTAs where it lost Best Non-English film to "Sentimental Value" and missed out on several key longlist mentions it still managed to land a surprise Best Original Screenplay nomination- something that didn't even happen at the Oscars where it's nominated for Best Picture. Between this film and last year's winner in this category "I'm Still Here" it's obvious that the popularity, respect, and love for Brazilian cinema is at an all time high. 

"Sentimental Value" very well might win this Oscar and I won't be surprised in the slightest if that happens, but I'm sticking with "The Secret Agent" as my prediction. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM 

Will win: Butterfly (Papillon) 

Could win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls 

Since every year any short nominated in each of the three short categories has a shot at winning, I will write a brief sentence about every nominated short (I saw them all this year) with at least one reason supporting a possible win. 

"The Girl Who Cried Pearls" is a phenomenally crafted stop motion short, the quality of the stop motion animation is memorable and the story is a good parable. It is the only short in this lineup with an eye catching title that would be compelling to voters who haven't actually watched the shorts- which unfortunately is a lot of the academy's voter base. 

"Forevergreen" is made by animators that formerly worked for Disney and is the most "kid friendly" short nominated here. It ends on a religous note, which may be either a big turn on or turn off for voters that watch the shorts. 

"The Three Sisters" is from a director that's been nominated twice before, it is a funny and very well made short but lacks a message. 

"Butterfly" might arguably have the most beautiful animation with its water color paint style. It follows the moving, inspirational story of an Olympic swimmer who survived the Holocaust. 

"Retirement Plan" is the funniest short nominated in this lineup, as it goes on steadily getting more and more bittersweet and reflective on how we spend our lives. 

I went with "Butterfly" here due to its more emotional pull and the undeniable beauty of its animation- although "Retirement Plan" and "The Girl Who Cried Pearls" are also viable contenders for the win. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM 

Will win: All the Empty Rooms 

Could win: Armed Only With A Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud 

"The Devil Is Busy" is a very humanistic approach to the politically timely/heavy subject matter of Abortion clinics and is directed by Geeta Gandbhir, who is also nominated for "The Perfect Neighbor" in Best Documentary Feature. 

"Children No More: Were and Are Gone" showcases very relevant silent protests taking place in Israel, it's subject matter is politically timely/heavy and its title is a long, eye catching one. 

"Armed Only With A Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud" is a tearjerker that stiches together Brent Renaud's work across many different wars/conflicts on Earth over the past decade as well as his funeral. Out of this lineup, its title is the most eye catching/interesting to voters who haven't seen the shorts. It's subject matter is politically timely/heavy. 

"All the Empty Rooms" is a tearjerker that follows a detail that isn't focused on in mainstream media, the empty bedrooms of children killed in school shootings and the lives that they left behind. It's subject matter is politically timely/heavy. 

"Perfectly a Strangness" is the least likley to win, but is artistically the most unique following a group of donkeys wondering around an observatory from the perspective of the donkeys. 

I'm predicting "All the Empty Rooms" because it's the most acclaimed out of these nominees and is truly a moving documentary. I literally balled my eyes out crying almost nonstop for the entire forty minute short- and from what I've seen/read I know I'm not alone in being truly moved by this short. Still, "Armed Only With A Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud" or "The Devil is Busy" are also strong in the running for the win. 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM 

Will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva 

Could win: The Singers 

It isn't always the case, but this year the live action lineup is made up of all pretty positively perceived films- all five nominees ranging from good to great. 

"Butcher's Stain" is very much the type of short that the academy likes to go for, approach and heavy subject matter-wise. 

"A Friend of Dorothy" is a big-time crowdpleaser that tugs on the heartstrings. 

"Two People Exchanging Saliva" is the highest rated/most acclaimed out of these with a very unique concept most likely to be turned in a feature film one day and it has an eye-catching title for voters who haven't seen the shorts.  

"Jane Austen's Period Drama" is probably the least likely to win due to it being solely comedic, but it also has an eye-catching title for voters who haven't seen the shorts. 

"The Singers" is another big-time crowdpleaser that tugs on the heartstrings, plus is from a previous nominee & has a strong Netflix campaign behind it. 

I've decided to go with "Two People Exchanging Saliva" mainly because it checks off two major boxes of having the most interesting/eye-catching title for voters who haven't watched any of the shorts and for those that have seen them it is many people's favorite or most respected. 

I might also be just a tiny bit biased in predicting "Two People Exchanging Saliva" because it is my favorite short out of all fifteen nominated, and the best short film that I've seen in years.