2026 CANNES FILM FESTIVAL AWARDS WINNER PREDICTIONS

Published on 5/22/26

Written by: Braylon Mitchell

My predictions for the winners of the awards/prizes handed out at the 79th Annual Cannes Film Festival. Winners will announced on May 23rd.

Although I'm not physically there, spiritually for the past two weeks I've been following along with the latest reactions and reviews for most every film premiering at the Cannes Film Festival- one of the most famous film festivals in the world that year after year is the most prestigious launching pad for several of the year's most talked about and best films, particularly it's the hotspot for international cinema from all over the world. Since 2019, it has been quite the hotspot for films that go onto to have Oscar success too- as the academy award voter base has become more international, so has the way they embrace both international cinema and English language films with international appeal.

If you're not already familiar, predicting awards handed out at film festivals isn't the same playing field as predicting the Oscars or other traditional awards bodies- most film festival awards are chosen by a select jury, in the case of the 2026 Cannes Film Festival it's a nine person jury headed by "Oldboy" and "No Other Choice" director Park Chan Wook along with jurors such as Demi Moore, Stellan Skarsgaard, Chloe Zhao, and others.

Predicting these awards/prizes is much more like throwing darts more so than educated predictions, because anything could happen with a jury of only nine. These are simply guesses, I doubt many of them will be right- but hey, it sure is fun to give it a shot!

PALM D'OR

Will win: La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Could win: All of a Sudden

For most of this year's Cannes, there weren't many films being universally lauded as "masterpieces" or generating an abundance of passionate buzz as contenders to win the Palm. There have been a handful of films in competition such as "Minotaur", "Fatherland", "Fjord", and "All of a Sudden" that have garnered a lot of acclaim and stand as strong Palm contenders- but then on May 21st "The Black Ball" premiered, and the race for the Palm kind of felt like it was over. Within minutes of reading critics' intial reactions, I thought to myself "oh, there we go that's the Palm winner".

A "The Brutalist" meets "The Hours" esque Spanish epic that follows three separate gay men in three separate eras, "The Black Ball" received just about the strongest and most exciting reactions you could possibly hope for- sparking a multi studio bidding war (that's yet to be settled at the time I'm writing this, although I'm predicting Netflix will win it), setting a record for the second longest standing ovation in Cannes history at twenty minutes, and crashing into the awards scene as an across the board top Oscars contender.

Even from across the ocean, I can feel how much palpable excitement there is for this film.

I feel like Ryusuke Hamaguchi is bound to win a major prize for "All of a Sudden" and the jury very well might decide that should be the top prize, but at the moment "The Black Ball" feels too huge not to stand a real shot at winning the coveted Palm D'Or.

OSCAR-WISE:

2019 Palm D'Or winner "Parasite" won Best Picture, 2022 Palm D'Or winner "Triangle of Sadness" was nominated for Best Picture, 2023 Palm D'Or winner "Anatomy of a Fall" was nominated for Best Picture and won Best Original Screenplay, 2024 Palm D'Or winner "Anora" won Best Picture, and 2025 Palm D'Or winner "It Was Just An Accident" was nominated for two Oscars. The Palm D'or winners of this decade so far have had a strong presence at the Oscars, so whichever film wins this award will be pushed as a top awards player- if "All of a Sudden" wins it'll have legs as NEON's main awards push, and Palm D'Or win or not "The Black Ball" feels like its bound to have a massive presence throughout the upcoming awards season. Especially if it does actually win the Palm, I wouldn't count "The Black Ball" out as a potenial future Best Picture winner. I'm probably in over my head, but I can't help it if I'm able to envision a realistic potential path for it to win.